WPA:MVP as LI:GOD

A few people in the word (read: one) may have noticed that I did not post either an MVP or Game O' the Day for Monday, April 15.  While those posts were driving great traffic, my intention was to bring awareness to two statistics that tell the story of an MLB game, not necessarily recap each night of baseball.

WPA:MVP

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a stat that measures a players impact on the game by measuring how their offensive performance impacts their team's win expectancy.  Here is an example from Fangraphs: 

For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 – .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.


Basically, WPA tells you whose batting outcomes had the biggest impact on the game.  Therefore, the timing and context of the plate appearances are very important.  Thus confirming what we already know but is hard to capture in the box score: a 2-run game winning homerun has much more impact than a grand slam when you are up by 10.

For me, WPA is the best way to evaluate a player's performance on a game-by-game basis and it is also interesting to look at over a whole season (The 2012 season leader in WPA was Mike Trout with 5.32 WPA).

LI:GOD

Leverage Index (LI) captures the change in win probability resulting from the game action.  Here is an example from Hardball Times:

If there is a game with one team leading by ten runs, the possible changes in win probability, whether the event is a home run or a double play, will be very close to negligible. That is, there won't be much swing in any direction.  But, in a late and close game, the change in win probability among the various events will have rather wild swings. With a runner on first, two outs, down by one, and in the bottom of the ninth, the game can hinge on one swing of the bat—a home run and an out will both end the game, but with vastly different outcomes for the teams involved. 

Blowouts are going to have a low average LI (aLI) because there is not much change in the probability in who will win the game.  Therefore, games with a high average LI are going to be the most interesting game of the night because they will have gone back and forth without one team really taking control of the game.

Fangraphs posts live WPA and LI information for every game.  So, instead of having me summarize every night in the MLB take a look for yourself.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 14, 2011 - Pence Helps Gigantes Beat the Cubbies; Rauch is Still Tall

4/14 MVP: Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants - 3-4 (1 HR), 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB, 0.47 WPA.  Clutch Moment: Homerun in the 9th that tied the score at 7-7.

4/14 GOD: Philadelphia Phillies (2) @ Miami Marlins (1) - Turning Point: Jon Rauch makes another appearance in the Game of the Day section here at Marcello Ball, and it is not for being an effective pitcher.  Instead of keeping the score tied to give a chance for the Marlins to take the lead in the bottom of the ninth, Rauch gave up a bomb to Laynce Nix in the top of the inning to give the Phils a 2-1 lead.  Unfortunately, being the tallest major league baseball player in the history of the game does not automatically mean you get people out.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 13, 2013 - Pujols is Clutch; Sox Win in 10

4/13 MVP: Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 2-3, 1 R, 2 RBI (GW), 0.73 WPA

4/13 GOD: Tampa Bay Rays (1) @ Boston Red Sox (2) (10 innings) - Turning Point: With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Jacoby Ellsbury singled off of Rays reliever Brandon Gomes.  Ellsbury then stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by Rays catcher Jose Lobaton.  Ellsbury stole the base easily, but the throw from Lobaton down to second was not that bad.  The burden of the error may belong to Yunel Escobar for his lackadaisical attempt to catch the off target throw.  Escobar lunged for the ball to but the ball careened off his glove and into centerfield, allowing Ellsbury to advance to third.  The Rays then brought the infield in and Shane Victorino grounded a ball up the middle, which Escobar dove for and caught, but for some reason threw to first.  Ellsbury would have been safe at home regardless of the throw, but throwing it to first base was totally useless.  Great game overall and the Sox did a nice job capitalizing on some mistakes in the 10th by the Rays.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 12, 2013 - Masterson = Masterful; Rauch = Tall

4/12 MVP: Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland Indians - 9.0 IP, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 0.676 WPA

4/12 GOD: Philadephia Phillies (3) @ Miami Marlins (1) (10 Innings) - Turning Point:  After striking out our boy Kevin Frandsen to start the inning, Jon Rauch gave up a line drive single to Ben Revere followed by a infield fly out by Jimmy Rollins.  Chase Utley then tripled to center, scoring Revere and giving the Phillies a 2-1 lead.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 11, 2013 - Juan Uribe, Softball Player

4/11 MVP: Juan Uribe, PH, Los Angeles Dodgers - 1-1 (1 HR), 1 RBI, 0.292 WPA.  Don't mess with Juan Uribe or he'll do this.  Once again, it's not how much you do, what matters is when you do it.

4/11 GOD: Texas Rangers (4) @ Seattle Mariners (3) - Turning Point:  Felix Hernandez ran into a bit of trouble in the 5th.  With the scored tied 2-2, Ian Kinsler lead the inning off with a single to left and reached second on a wild pitch.  Elvis Andrus then walked.  Hernandez settled down and got the next two outs without a hit.  Lance Berkman grounded into a fielder's choice and Adrian Beltre struck out.  David Murphy would not let Felix off the hook though.  He singled to center, scoring Kinsler and advancing Berkman to third.  Nelson Cruz finished off the scoring by doubling to left, scoring Berkman and lifting the Rangers to a 4-2 lead.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 10, 2013 - The New Manny

4/10 MVP: Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles - 1-5 (1 HR), 1 R, 3 RBI, 0.446 WPA.  Timing matters people, especially at Marcello Ball.  It is not how much you do, it is what you do and the impact of it.  Manny Machado had great timing last night.

4/10 GOD: Baltimore Orioles (8) @ Boston Red Sox (5) - Turning Point: Joel Hanrahan in, top 9, Red Sox up 5-3.  Chris Davis bomb, 5-4.  Matt Wieters strikeout, J.J. Hardy foul out.  2 outs, Hanrahan still in.  Ryan Flaherty singles to left, Nolan Reimold walks, Nate McLouth walks.  Hanrahan clan is not happy, but still alive.  Oops, nevermind.  Wild pitch, Alexi Casilla (pinch runner for Flaherty) scores.  Bad news for the Hanrahan clan, it is all tied up.  Marcello Ball MVP Manny Machado strides to the plate and deposits the Hanrahan offering into the bleachers.  8-5 B-more.  Oriole Magic!  Manny for MVP!

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 9, 2013 - Catchers are the Rage

4/9 MVP: John Jaso, PH --> C, Oakland Athletics - 1-2 (1 HR), 1 R, 3 RBI, 0.516 WPA. Once again, the quickest way to earning MVP here is a pitch hit bomb.

4/9 GOD: Pittsburgh Pirates (6) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (5) - Turning Point: Bucs down 3-4 top of the 4th. Brandon McCarthy on the mound for the D'Backs, Neil Walker at the plate, James McDonald on third base, and Starling Marte on second. Walker singles to center, scoring McDonald and Marte.  Buccos up 5-4.  D'Backs never get the lead back.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 8, 2013 - Opening Day for the Other Half of the League

4/8 MVP: Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox - 7 IP, 0 R, 8 K, 4 BB, 3 H, 0.471 WPA

4/8 GOD: Cincinnati Reds (13) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Yes, a game with a run differential of nine is the Game of the Day.  The Minnesota Twins loss to the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City actually had the same average leverage index; however, I chose the Reds vs. Cards game to illustrate that the final score doesn't tell the story.  With that.... Turning Point: Score tied 4-4 in the top of the ninth.  Mitchell Boggs enters for the Cards.  As he often does, Shin-Soo Choo walks to lead off the inning.  Chris Heisey then pops out to second base.  Choo advances to second on a wild pitch, which then leads to a intentional walk to Joey Votto.  Brandon Phillips did not like being disrespected and takes it out on Boggs.  Phillips doubles to right scoring Choo.  5-4 Reds.  The Cards 'pen imploded from there and the Reds tacked on eight (!) more runs in the 9th.  Lesson: Don't disrespect Brandon Phillips.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 7, 2013 - National Beer Day Edition

In case you missed it, yesterday was National Beer Day.  Naturally, the Brewers are involved in both the MVP and GOD for the day.  It is also the reason the post is so late.

4/7 MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers - 2-3, 2 RBI, 1 HBP, WPA 0.55

4/7 GOD: Arizona Diamondbacks (8) @ Milwaukee Brewers (7) - Turning Point: Tie score top of the 11th, John Axford in.  Cliff Pennington leads off with a double to left.  Ron Roenicke starts to question bringing a Canadian in to pitch for the Brewers on National Beer Day in the United States.  Eric Hinske hates Molsen and homers, giving the D'Backs a 8-6 lead.  The great American, and Eustis, Florida native, Jonathan Lucroy tried to bring the Brew Crew back in the bottom of the 11th with a RBI single that scored Norichika Aoki.  However, the damage was done.  John Axford's mistake on National Beer Day is something you don't do when you pitch for the Brew, and rightfully  he is now out of a job.  Be wary new Canadian closer Jim Henderson.  April 7, 2014 is looming.

Baseball Prospectus Tears Down Verducci Effect

Good stuff from Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus debunking the Verducci Effect, which trys to predict pitcher injuries based on increased innings pitched.

Here is my favorite paragraph:

"The Verducci Effect is a case of speculation mixed with a really poor understanding of the scientific method, and that is a dangerous combination. It gives the illusion of knowledge, and that's more dangerous than simply not knowing something. It's tempting to want to grab onto the Verducci explanation, especially when a young pitcher with so much promise suffers such a large setback, because a wrong explanation feels better than no explanation."

Baseball Prospectus | Baseball Therapy: Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 6, 2013 - Kevin Frandsen!

4/6 MVP: Kevin Frandsen, PH, Philadelphia Phillies - 1-1, 3 RBI.  Down 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth, the man, the myth, the legend, Kevin Frandsen came to the plate with the bases and two outs and doubled to center, scoring three and lifting the Phils to a 4-3 win over the Royals.  That, folks, is how you become the Marcello Ball Daily MVP.

4/6 GOD: Minnesota Twins (6) @ Baltimore Orioles (5) - Turning Point: The O's brought in closer Jim Johnson in the top of the ninth with score tied 5-5.  Jamey Carroll lead off the inning by grounding out 1-3.  Aaron Hicks then reached on an error by Chris Davis.  Joe Mauer struckout and Josh Willingham walked.  Next up, Justin Morneau with two outs and runners on first and second.  Morneau singled to center, scoring Hicks and lifting the Twinkies to a 6-5 lead.  Unfortunately for O's fans, Chris Davis did not hit in the ninth (he was in the hole when the last out was made) and did not have the opportunity to atone for his sin in the ninth.  Chris Davis giveth and Chris Davis taketh.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 5, 2013 - Gordon = Brett?

4/5 MVP - Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals - 3-6 (3B), 2 R, 3 RBI, 0.43 WPA

4/5 GOD - Minnesota Twins (5) @ Baltimore Orioles (9) - Turning Point: Chris Davis strikes again!  Grand slam off of Tyler Robertson in the bottom of the 8th to make the score 9-5 O's.  The O's started the inning off down 5-4, but Nolan Reimold and Nate McLouth led of the inning with singles off Casey Fein.  Buck Showalter then pulled a OOOOOOHHH DUSTY and had Manny Machado sac bunt, which lead to Reimold and McLouth advancing a base and an intentional walk to Nick Markakis.   Maybe that was Buck's plan all along, but it seems curious to take the bat out of Markakis' hands against Fien, a righty, to have him face a righty Adam Jones.  Pacman Jones II made Showalter look like a genius by singling to left, scoring Reimold and loading the bases for the man hitting everything.  Ron Gardenhire tried to slow the left-handed Davis down by bringing in a lefty.  Sorry Gardy.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 4, 2013 - Lee Outduels Davis

4/4 MVP: Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 8 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 8 K, 0 BB

Honorable Mention: Chris Davis (is Hitting Everything), Hitter, Baltimore Orioles - 2-3 (HR, 2B, HBP), 1 R, 4 RBI, 0 K

4/4 Game of the Day: Chicago Cubs (3) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (2) - Turning point: Nate Schierholtz and his well trimmed beard blasted a two run homer off of Jared Hughes with two outs in the top of the ninth to score himself and Anthony Rizzo (who reached on a walk and stole second).  Schierholtz's homerun gave the Cubbies a 3-0 lead, which was necessary since Carlos Marmol is their closer and he his not great at his job.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 3, 2013 - Neither Opening Day nor Night Edition

Bunting Rules!

4/3 MVP: Matt Joyce, Pinch Hitter --> LF , Tampa Bay Rays, 2-2 (1 HR, 1 bunt single!), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/3 GOD: St. Louis Cardinals (9) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (10) (16 innings) - Jason Kubel led off the bottom of the 16th with a walk against Fernando Salas (who was in his third inning of work).  Ian Kennedy (yes, the pitcher Ian Kennedy) sac bunted Kubel over to second (Bunting Rules!) Cliff Pennington finalized the game with a groundball single to right, scoring Kubel from second.  Good night, game over, drive home safely.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 2, 2013 - Opening Day #2 Edition

Not the dude who almost through a perfect game.

4/2 MVP: Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles - 3-5 (1 2B), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/2 GOD: Colorado Rockies (8) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4) - With the scored tied 4-4 in the top of the 7th, Mike Gonzalez, aka Michael Gonzalez, walked Dexter Fowler to lead of the inning.  Josh Rutledge then singled on a sacrifice bunt attempt.  Next up Carlos Gomez - single on grounder to first.  That's right folks, bases loaded no outs and the ball has not left the infield.  Burke Badenhop in to face Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Gonzalez out.  That didn't work.  Tulo hits a sac fly to center, scoring Fowler and allowing Rutledge to advance to third.  Michael Cuddyer then notches the third infield single of the inning on a grounder to third, scoring Rutledge and advancing Gomez to second.  6-4 Rocks.  Todd Helton caps the scoring with a line drive single to center scoring Gomez before Chris Nelson grounds in to a 1-6-3 double play to end the inning.  7-4 Rockies, bottom of the 7th.  Game over.  One leadoff walk, three infield singles (one on a sac bunt attempt), and one actual hit than left the infield.  Baseball is a crazy game.

Oooh Dusty

Bottom of the eighth inning and the Angels and Reds were tied 1-1.  Zero on Zero out .488 runs expected.  The Angels pitcher was Garret Richards 0.491 xFIP (League wide 4.01)9th batter Xavier Paul led off for the Reds. Paul was able to reach base thanks to an error by Howie Kendrick.0.857 Runs Expected- Runner on 1st no outs.

Aroldis Chapman was waiting in the bullpen an xFIP of 1.93 and 39 Saves last year.

Due up was Shin-Soo Choo 0.359 wOBA (0.315 League Wide wOBA last year), Brandon Phillips 0.325 wOBA , Joey Votto 0.438 wOBA, Chris Heisey 0.313wOBA, Jay Bruce 0.352 wOBA, and then Todd Frazier 0.354 wOBA.

Dusty Baker let Choo hit and Choo rewarded him with a single. Runners on 1st and 2^nd, no outs 1.442 Runs expected, Brandon Phillips up to bat.

·        Option 1 – Double steal. Runners move to 2^nd and 3^rd zero outs or Paul gets thrown out at 3^rd and Phillips is safe at 2^nd 1 out.

o   Increase the Run expectancy to 1.893 or decrease it to 1.072. Gain of + 0.45 or a loss of -0.37 assuming Paul is thrown out a 3^rd.

·        The steal is not worth the risk. Only gaining + 0.45 runs, while losing out on 0.37 runs is not worth taking. According to Fangraphs you would need a 78% success rate to make it worth stealing 3^rd. Not great with Iannetta catching and Paul running.

·        Option 2 – let Brandon Phillips hit

o   68% Records an out- Runners don’t advance 0.904 Runs expected

• 2.7% of a K, 20% line drive, 32% fly ball, 47% ground ball

·        19 GDP last year – Run Expectancy runner on 3^rd and 2 outs 0.363

o   32% Phillips walks or gets on base other than by hit. Bases loaded no outs 2.262 Run Expectancy

o   28% Phillips gest a base hit. Reds score a run and hand the ball to Chapman for the save

·        Option 2 has risks and rewards. The double play would basically kill the inning and there is a 47% chance of that he hits a ground ball, but the percentage that turn into a double play is not known. The reward is that Phillips gets a hit or gets on base is higher than the chance that he grounds into a double play.

·        Option 3 – Bunt. Runners move up to 2^nd and 3^rd 1 out.

o   The Run expectancy would go from 1.442 to 1.289. A net of -0.153 runs. But, the Reeds were only playing for 1 run with Chapman waiting in the bullpen.

·        Option 3- avoids the double play and brings Joe Votto to bat with 2 runners in scoring position. Yes the Reds lose a chance to score more runs, but they only need one with Chapman in the bullpen.

Dusty Baker decided to use Option 3 and bunt Brandon Phillips and avoid a double play, I presume, because that is the only way that makes sense. . What Baker failed to recognize is that the hitter behind Votto 0.438 wOBA was Chris Heisey, 0.313wOBA a below average hitter,  not Ryan Ludwick the Reds starting clean-up hitter who left the game with an injury. By bunting Phillips, Baker should have known that the Angels would walk Joey Votto and take their chance with Heisey after all bases loaded and 1out is 1.538 runs and runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 1 out is 1.29 runs. The Angels would take their chance with Heisey instead of letting Votto win the game. Dusty Baker took the bat out of his best hitter’s hands and let a below average player try to win the game. The end result does not matter, the process does.

The end result, in case you were wondering was that Garrett Richards struck Heisey out on 4 pitches. Jay Bruce was up and Mike Scoscia replaced (R ) Richards with (L) Sean Burnett to take advantage of a small platoon advantage. Bruce struck out on 6 pitches to end the inning. Joey Votto got on base the two other times he got up to bat. Baker remained consistent, he bunted Heisey with a runner on 1^st and no outs 0.857 Runs Expected to 0.6551 Runs expected, which allowed the Angels to walk Bruce and go righty on righty in the 11^th inning and face Todd Frazier. Frazier struck out, Hannahan got out and Votto was stranded.  The Angels won in 13 innings.  

Sesame Street Rocks

Awesome! (Thank you Roopa for the heads up)

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 1, 2013 - Opening Day Edition

Babe Ruth, who?

4/1 MVP: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB; 1-3 (1 HR), 1 R, 1 RBI.  Ruthian.

4/1 GOD: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (3) vs. Cincinnati Reds (1) (13 innings) - Turning Point: Chris Iannetta hit a line drive single to left off of J. Edgar Hoover J.J. Hoover in the top of the 13th that scored Josh Hamilton and Howie Kendrick (who both reached base by walk - Kendrick intentionally).

MLB MVP O' the Day - March 31, 2013 - Opening Night Edition

This post is dedicated to the 2013 Houston Astros, the first place 1-0 Houston Astros.

3/31 MVP:  Justin Maxwell, CF, Houston Astros - 2-3 (2 3B), 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB

3/31 GOD - Texas Rangers (2) vs. Houston Astros (8) - Turning Point:  Maxwell tripled to center with two outs in the fourth, scoring Brett Wallace and Carlos Pena (who both reached on groundball singles to centerfield) to give the Astros a 2-0 lead.

What I'm Watching - Friday March Madness Edition

To help you focus you March Madness viewing, I am ranking the watchability of the games in each round in an effort to focus my limited time in front of the TV.  The two parameters I am looking at are projected margin of victory  and average tempo of each game.  I am ranking the parameters for each game and then taking the average of the two rankings.  One is the best score possible.  If you have limited time, choose the game with the lowest score and watch that game.  Here is the breakdown for Friday's games:

Game to Watch: (7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Iowa Sate (9:45 PM ET CBS) - Projects to be a close game with a fast pace.  Win-win.   A must tune in for me.

Theme of the Day:  North Carolina vs. Philly - A pair of great 8-9 match ups are at the top of the board today: (8) North Carolina vs. (9) Villanova (7:20 PM ET TNT) and (8) North Carolina State vs. (9) Temple (1:30 PM TBS).  Both Carolina teams like to get up and down the court.  Tune in to see if the Philly boys can keep up.

Tip of the Day:  Take a nap in the afternoon so you can watch the late games.  Three out of the top five rated games tip off after 9:00 PM ET.  Take a nap during the late afternoon games so you can make sure you are awake for the finish of the late match ups.

How to trim your March Madness viewing and avoid being fired - Thursday Edition

To help you focus you March Madness viewing and avoid being fired, I am ranking the watchability of the games in each round in an effort to focus my limited time in front of the TV.  The two parameters I am looking at are projected margin of victory  and average tempo of each game.  I am ranking the parameters for each game and then taking the average of the two rankings.  One is the best score possible.  If you have limited time, choose the game with the lowest score and watch that game.  Here is the breakdown for Thursday's games:

The Game to Watch: (8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri (9:20 PM ET on TBS) - This should be a close game that is fast paced.  Win-win.  It is a win-win-win if you factor in partying with Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy after the game.

Upset Alert: (11) St. Mary's vs. (6) Memphis (2:45 PM ET on CBS) - Keep your eye on this one.  St. Mary's has a shot.

Polarizing Game of the Day: (6) Butler vs. (11) Bucknell (12:40 PM ET on TRU) - Projects to be a close match-up, but at a very slow pace.  This game is going to help me decide if drama or pace is more important.

Those are the three games I'll have my eye on.  Do not worry about Gonzaga or Louisville there is little chance of them being up set.

Finally, make sure to join the Marcello Ball group on Yahoo! Tourney Pick 'Em.

First Four (aka We still need to win one more to get in)

North Carolina Agricultural and Technical, Liberty, Long Island-Brooklyn, and James Madison I feel for you. Middle Tennessee, St. Mary's, La Salle, and Boise State not so much.  A few years back the Minor League Basketball Tournament expanded beyond 64 teams in an effort to get more teams involved.  More is better (just ask AT&T); however, I think it sucks for the teams who won their conference tournaments and are now stuck in what is essentially a play-in game.  This tournament is the pinnacle for these teams and their players, unfortunately only half of them will actually get there.  I do not mind the play-in game for the teams who were on the so-called bubble, but I also think it is pretty useless.  These teams do not advance far enough to make a difference in the tournament.  Pick the 64 teams and move forward (I know the argument is made that job success is determined by tournament berths, but I hope the folks who make those decisions have a better idea of what is going on).

As outlined yesterday, I am ranking the watchability of the games in each round in an effort to focus my limited time in front of the TV.  The two parameters I am looking at are projected margin of victory  and average tempo of each game.  I am ranking the parameters for each game and then taking the average of the two rankings.  One is the best score possible.  The final result is a game score similar to NERD that was introduced by Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs, which he uses to rank baseball games every night.  If you have limited time, choose the game with the lowest score and watch that game.  The break down for the games on Tuesday and Wednesday is below.

And the winner is Long Island-Brooklyn vs. James Madison.  Long Island-Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace among the eight schools listed and gives up a ton of points.   My advice would be to watch this game if you have the chance.  I am personally also going to watch the Middle Tennessee vs. St. Mary's matchup as well because I have either of those teams upsetting Memphis in Round 2.

Happy watching.  I'll be back on Thursday to break down Round 2.

Minor League March Madness, Baby!

The time has come for us to celebrate the Annual Minor League Basketball Tournament, also known as the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.  I do not like to use the term NCAA or the names of the universities involved in said tournament because the NCAA and its amateurism is a sham.  Let's call this thing what it truly is and recognize it is a minor league basketball tournament.  It is filled with great drama and story lines, but make no mistake - it is minor league basketball.  While the games are not usually well played, they are generally close in score and the players are playing their butts off from the tip-off to the final whistle (which cannot be said for most NBA games, even in the playoffs).  The real draw is the single elimination tournament.  The possibility of elimination (and the possibility of filling out an incorrect bracket) is what feeds the madness and holds our interest.

Even its greatest skeptics have to admit, minor league basketball is fun to watch.  I will admit that I did not watch much regular season minor league basketball this year (read: I did not watch a single game).  However, I did watch the conference tourneys the past week and I have been looking over the wonderful statistics available at kenpom.com to prep for the tourney.  As a result, I am an expert on minor league basketball and as a result, you should help me guide your viewing.  

Drama and pace are a two things I am planning to pay attention to as the tournament unfolds.  Close games are great to watch, so I am choosing to focus on those games in the hopes of getting more drama (sorry Mary J).  After crunching some numbers I have ranked the games based on projected score and I plan to keep the closest eye on the ones I project to be the most bitterly fought and have the smallest margin of victory.  Second, I am going to try to watch the games that have the fastest pace.  After reading the Grantland.com article about how West Liberty University loves to push the pace of the game, I realized how bad it is to watch low scoring, poorly played, and terribly executed minor league basketball.   Therefore, I am going to focus on the games that will have the fastest tempo - frankly, to avoid falling asleep.  

Margin of victory and tempo are the two trends that I find most interesting.  I will post the rankings for projected margin of victory for the with the quickest pace before each round of the tournament.  These will be updated after each round so keep coming back as the tournament progesses.  Tomorrow I will preview the 1st round games, also known as the "First Four" and previously known as the "Play-In Game".

Finally, join the Marcello Ball Tourney Pick 'Em group on Yahoo!  I am trying to come up a prize for the winner.  At the very least you tell me how poor my prognostication skills are.

Is Kevin Garnett Happy?

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/culture/kevin-garnett-crosses-line-with-carmelo-anthony-14958811

I watched the 2nd half of the Clippers vs. Celtics game on Sunday February 3rd. The Celtics were victorious 106-104 after losing a double digit lead. As players of the opposing teams exchanged hugs and semi-elaborate handshakes Kevin Garnett walked alone to the locker room. This made me ponder, is Kevin Garnett happy?

During the 2nd quarter Garnett was involved in two physical plays. Drawing a foul on Matt Barnes, by over-acting. And he earned a technical foul for elbowing Blake Griffin. In both of these situations his teammates came to assist him, but he seemed to not let the issue go. While Griffin and Barnes talked to teammates, Garnett just stood angrily staring into the distance.

The Boston Celtics won, but this did not seem to make him happy. Much has been made lately about his trash talking and how he is a player that you want on your team, but hate if he is on your opponent. Regardless of this, is he happy? It sure does not seem like it. Garnett's playing days are numbered and he will journey into the next stage of his life with a lot of money (close to $300 million in salary), but with how many good memories while playing? Will he be a secluded ex-player or turn into a lovable legend for his dedication to the game...see Bill Russell, Michael Jordan?

I doubt that he will be remembered as well as Russell or Jordan because he has been involved in more drama on the court. Plus, he has not won as much as those two players. If he will not be remember that way then it will be as a over-reacting trash-talking fierce competitor that many fans hate.

We idolize these fierce competitors that will do anything to win. But, is this the message that we want to send to future generations. Do you want your son or daughter to grow up and be like Kevin Garnett?

Perhaps you might, from a athletic standpoint. But what about as a person?

Kevin Garnett legacy will be as great basketball player and ....... the rest is still up to him and I hope it is not too late for him to become a person that future generations should strive to become.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2010/09/25/nba-to-crack-down-on-overt-complaining/

President Taft

I love the National Presidential Race, even though it is a copy of the Sausage Race in Milwaukee. There was the excitement when Teddy Roosevelt won for the 1st time EVER. The most recent story line in the Presidential Race is that a new President will partake in the race. 27th President William Howard Taft. 

Susan Walsh

Congratulations to William Howard Taft's family, he deserves to be idolized in a way that isn't for getting stuck in the White House bathtub only to be removed by aides using butter for lubrication. William Howard Taft was a great lawyer and a less accomplished President, losing a bid for re-election. He was the only President to later serve on the Supreme Court. 

 But, does Taft deserve this honor? The four other participants of the race are Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Teddy Roosevelt. These four presidents have their flaws, but are very highly regarded. Taft's accomplishments do not compare to winning the Revolutionary War, writing the Declaration of Independence, signing the 13 Amendment, or establishing the National Park System.  

 The argument for Taft is that he has strong connections to baseball, he was the first President to throw out a first pitch. Other President's might have done this if the game had been more popular at his time. We are giving credit for a ceremonial duty. What about F.D.R.? A popular president, was elected 4 times. Plus we could show some diversity by including a President in a wheelchair.

C-SPAN Presidential Rankings 

President's Name	2009 Final Score	Overall Ranking
		2009	2000
Abraham Lincoln	902	1	1
George Washington	854	2	3
Franklin D. Roosevelt	837	3	2
Theodore Roosevelt	781	4	4
Harry S. Truman	708	5	5
John F. Kennedy	701	6	8
Thomas Jefferson	698	7	7
Dwight D. Eisenhower	689	8	9
Woodrow Wilson	683	9	6
Ronald Reagan	671	10	11
Lyndon B. Johnson	641	11	10
James K. Polk	606	12	12
Andrew Jackson	606	13	13
James Monroe	605	14	14
Bill Clinton	605	15	21
William McKinley	599	16	15
John Adams	545	17	16
George H. W. Bush	542	18	20
John Quincy Adams	542	19	19
James Madison	535	20	18
Grover Cleveland	523	21	17
Gerald R. Ford	509	22	23
Ulysses S. Grant	490	23	33
William Howard Taft	485	24	24

Historians would agree with me about other Presidents being more deserving of this honor. In a C-SPAN poll completed by historians in 2009 and 2000 ranked Taft 24th. Notable Presidents I would have chosen are F.D.R.(in the wheelchair), J.F.K.(because I love initials, in a convertible), Ronald Reagan (demented and always running the wrong direction), or Andrew Jackson. Jackson, noted Native-American slayer, could be included now that the Nationals do not play in the same park as the Redskins.

Nationals you had marketing gold with Teddy Roosevelt last year and you could have ridden that train longer. Including, Taft is a attention grab that lacks good judgement on your choice of a President. Overall, I applaud the Nationals' effort in adding excitement to the ballpark experience, but choose more wisely. 

Give Kenny Lofton Some Hall of Fame Love

http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/2007/07/uploft.jpj.jpg

Kenny Lofton was a damn good centerfielder. After the shambolic votes for this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame were reported, I was sad to see that Kenny Lofton would not be on the ballot again in the future. He deserved a better fate and more recognition. Instead his career got caught up in the incessant arguments about the steroid era and he will never get is due.

Kenny Kenny, as I like to refer to him, was the catalyst to the great Cleveland Indians offense in the mid-90s. I will always remember him with his big hitch in his left-handed swing mashing balls to right and slashing others to left. I’ll also remember him for the swagger he played the game with and especially that awesome gold diamond pendant with the “K” in the middle (That pendant was boss and I’m glad to see it is Kenny’s background photo for his Twitter account). He was a great centerfielder with prototypical leadoff skills.

Kenny broke finally broke into the league in 1991 after being in the minors for a few years and finishing a great college BASKETBALL career at Arizona. Yes, basketball. Kenny Lofton did not even play baseball until his junior year of college and he was drafted that year by the Astros (he played minor league ball that summer, but went back to UA to get his degree and finish his senior season of basketball). Kenny Kenny hit his stride until 1992 when he was traded to the Indians. In 1992, he ended with 6.3 WAR (calculatedby FanGraphs) and followed that up with a 7.3 WAR season in 1993 and a 6.9 in 1994. According to FanGraphs rule-of-thumb WAR chart, those are three MVP type seasons during Kenny’s first three full seasons in the bigs. Pretty freaking good. Kenny followed that up with three more “Superstar” and “All-Star” seasons during his career.

    Kenny Lofton's WAR by Year

           Year  WAR  Caliber

     1993  7.3  MVP

     1994  6.9  MVP

     1992  6.3  MVP

     1998  5.9  Superstar 

     1997  5.5  Superstar

     1996  5.1  Superstar

     1999  4.8  All-Star

     2003  4.4  All-Star

     1995  4.1  All-Star

     2005  3.9  Good Player

     2000  3.1  Good Player

     2007  2.8  Solid Starter

     2002  2.6  Solid Starter

     2006  1.6  Role Player

     2001  1.5  Role Player

     2004  0.5  Scrub

When evaluating a player’s career, I don’t really like to count the number of MVPs, Gold Gloves, All-Star appearances, etc. because they all have qualitative elements that depend on who was voting for those awards. Instead I prefer to look at career WAR and use that to compare players of the generation of interest. I define a generation of players as those who careers either start or end during the career of the player being evaluated. For example, Kenny Lofton’s generation of players are those whose careers included playing between 1992 and 2007. The first season that Kenny Lofton logged more than 130 at bats (thus, making him ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award) was 1992 (the same year he lit Cleveland on fire with a 6.3 WAR). And Kenny’s last season was 2007. Therefore, his generation of players includes any players that played at least one season between 1992 and 2007.

Now that we defined Kenny’s generation of players lets see how he stacks up against them in Career WAR (cWAR). Kenny’s career ended with him accumulating 66.3 cWAR, which is ranked 40^th amongst batters in his generation. By comparison, Kenny’s cWAR is less than Gary Sheffield (66.6) and Dave Winfield (67.7), but greater than Sammy Sosa (64.2) and Andre Dawson (62.9). Not to shabby.

If we look at Kenny compared to other centerfielders of his generation we more of his true value. I always like to compare players to others who played the same position. I think it gives a more fair assessment of how this player compared to his peers. First baseman and centerfielders are going to have very different profiles. When comparing Kenny to other CFs, he has the 4^th highest cWAR of players who careers spanned 1992-2007. Ken Griffey, Jr. is number one in cWAR, accumulating 85.2 wins, followed by Andruw Jones (67.9) and Jim Edmonds (66.8).

Kenny Lofton was a damn good player and a borderline Hall of Famer. I’m going to reserve judgment on whether or not I truly think he deserves to be in the Hall until I get some better perspective on the cWAR of other centerfielders already in the Hall of Fame. I big factor here is whether or not Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds are Hall of Famers also. Regardless, I will always remember Kenny Kenny for his big hitch from the left hand side, his awesome pendant, and for motoring around the bases with his helmet ready to fall of at any second. I hope one day Kenny gets the recognition from baseball fans he deserves. At the very least he deserves to be in the discussion for the Hall of Fame for more time.

You got what you deserve, Ryan Klesko

I hope you are not disappointed Ryan.  You aren’t a Hall of Famer in my book either.  Every Saturday Doug, Joe, and I rode our bikes to the baseball card store in the blazing heat of a Florida summer hoping to get your autograph on one of the 10 rookie cards of yours that we had.  And every Saturday you never showed up.  After about two months, we began to suspect that Al, the baseball card shop owner, might not be telling the truth about you coming to sign cards for us.  I mean it was the summer and you were obviously a baseball player, so in retrospect I’m not sure exactly how you would have ever made an appearance.  But Al had Mortal Kombat and common cards that we could stupidly purchase for pennies that would allow us to complete our sets of Upper Deck and Topps.  He couldn’t be lying to us.  Well Ryan, whatever the deal was, I have never forgiven you, and I’m glad that when I looked at the Hall of Fame voting today I saw that you did not receive one vote.  You didn’t deserve any.  Don’t disappoint children, even if it isn’t your fault.