Tuesday, March 19, 2013

First Four (aka We still need to win one more to get in)

North Carolina Agricultural and Technical, Liberty, Long Island-Brooklyn, and James Madison I feel for you. Middle Tennessee, St. Mary's, La Salle, and Boise State not so much.  A few years back the Minor League Basketball Tournament expanded beyond 64 teams in an effort to get more teams involved.  More is better (just ask AT&T); however, I think it sucks for the teams who won their conference tournaments and are now stuck in what is essentially a play-in game.  This tournament is the pinnacle for these teams and their players, unfortunately only half of them will actually get there.  I do not mind the play-in game for the teams who were on the so-called bubble, but I also think it is pretty useless.  These teams do not advance far enough to make a difference in the tournament.  Pick the 64 teams and move forward (I know the argument is made that job success is determined by tournament berths, but I hope the folks who make those decisions have a better idea of what is going on).

As outlined yesterday, I am ranking the watchability of the games in each round in an effort to focus my limited time in front of the TV.  The two parameters I am looking at are projected margin of victory  and average tempo of each game.  I am ranking the parameters for each game and then taking the average of the two rankings.  One is the best score possible.  The final result is a game score similar to NERD that was introduced by Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs, which he uses to rank baseball games every night.  If you have limited time, choose the game with the lowest score and watch that game.  The break down for the games on Tuesday and Wednesday is below.


And the winner is Long Island-Brooklyn vs. James Madison.  Long Island-Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace among the eight schools listed and gives up a ton of points.   My advice would be to watch this game if you have the chance.  I am personally also going to watch the Middle Tennessee vs. St. Mary's matchup as well because I have either of those teams upsetting Memphis in Round 2.

Happy watching.  I'll be back on Thursday to break down Round 2.

1 comment:

  1. Nice post dude. I like the silly advanced metrics. I may have a rooting interest in the LIB/JMU game by tomorrow night. I have a phone call scheduled with the head of the Bio dept tomorrow morning.

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