Bottom of the eighth
inning and the Angels and Reds were tied 1-1. Zero on Zero out .488 runs expected. The
Angels pitcher was Garret Richards 0.491 xFIP (League wide 4.01)9th batter Xavier
Paul led off for the Reds. Paul was able to reach base thanks to an error by
Howie Kendrick.0.857 Runs Expected- Runner on
1st no outs.
Aroldis
Chapman was waiting in the bullpen an xFIP of 1.93 and 39 Saves last year.
Due up
was Shin-Soo Choo 0.359 wOBA (0.315 League Wide wOBA last year), Brandon
Phillips 0.325 wOBA , Joey Votto 0.438 wOBA, Chris Heisey 0.313wOBA, Jay Bruce
0.352 wOBA, and then Todd Frazier 0.354 wOBA.
Dusty Baker let Choo hit and Choo
rewarded him with a single. Runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs 1.442
Runs expected, Brandon Phillips up to bat.
·
Option 1 – Double steal. Runners
move to 2nd and 3rd zero outs or Paul gets thrown out at
3rd and Phillips is safe at 2nd 1 out.
o
Increase the Run expectancy to 1.893
or decrease it to 1.072. Gain of + 0.45 or a loss of -0.37 assuming Paul is
thrown out a 3rd.
·
The steal is not worth the risk.
Only gaining + 0.45 runs, while losing out on 0.37 runs is not worth taking. According
to Fangraphs
you would need a 78% success rate to make it worth stealing 3rd. Not
great with Iannetta catching and Paul running.
·
Option 2 – let Brandon Phillips hit
o
68% Records an out- Runners don’t
advance 0.904 Runs expected
- 2.7% of a K, 20% line drive, 32% fly ball, 47% ground ball
·
19 GDP last year – Run Expectancy
runner on 3rd and 2 outs 0.363
o
32% Phillips walks or gets on base
other than by hit. Bases loaded no outs 2.262 Run Expectancy
o
28% Phillips gest a base hit. Reds
score a run and hand the ball to Chapman for the save
·
Option 2 has risks and rewards. The
double play would basically kill the inning and there is a 47% chance of that
he hits a ground ball, but the percentage that turn into a double play is not
known. The reward is that Phillips gets a hit or gets on base is higher than
the chance that he grounds into a double play.
·
Option 3 – Bunt. Runners move up to
2nd and 3rd 1 out.
o
The Run expectancy would go from
1.442 to 1.289. A net of -0.153 runs. But, the Reeds were only playing for 1
run with Chapman waiting in the bullpen.
·
Option 3- avoids the double play and
brings Joe Votto to bat with 2 runners in scoring position. Yes the Reds lose a
chance to score more runs, but they only need one with Chapman in the bullpen.
Dusty Baker decided to use Option 3
and bunt Brandon Phillips and avoid a double play, I presume, because that is
the only way that makes sense. . What Baker failed to recognize is that the
hitter behind Votto 0.438
wOBA was Chris Heisey, 0.313wOBA a below average hitter, not Ryan Ludwick the Reds starting clean-up
hitter who left the game with an injury. By bunting Phillips, Baker should have
known that the Angels would walk Joey Votto and take their chance with Heisey
after all bases loaded and 1out is 1.538 runs and runners on 2nd and
3rd with 1 out is 1.29 runs. The Angels would take their chance with
Heisey instead of letting Votto win the game. Dusty Baker took the bat out of
his best hitter’s hands and let a below average player try to win the game. The
end result does not matter, the process does.
The end
result, in case you were wondering was that Garrett Richards struck Heisey out
on 4 pitches. Jay Bruce was up and Mike Scoscia replaced (R ) Richards with (L)
Sean Burnett to take advantage of a small platoon advantage. Bruce struck out
on 6 pitches to end the inning. Joey Votto got on base the two other times he
got up to bat. Baker remained consistent, he bunted Heisey with a runner on 1st
and no outs 0.857 Runs Expected to 0.6551 Runs expected, which allowed the Angels
to walk Bruce and go righty on righty in the 11th inning and face
Todd Frazier. Frazier struck out, Hannahan got out and Votto was stranded. The Angels won in 13 innings.
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