WPA:MVP as LI:GOD

A few people in the word (read: one) may have noticed that I did not post either an MVP or Game O' the Day for Monday, April 15.  While those posts were driving great traffic, my intention was to bring awareness to two statistics that tell the story of an MLB game, not necessarily recap each night of baseball.

WPA:MVP

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a stat that measures a players impact on the game by measuring how their offensive performance impacts their team's win expectancy.  Here is an example from Fangraphs: 

For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 – .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.


Basically, WPA tells you whose batting outcomes had the biggest impact on the game.  Therefore, the timing and context of the plate appearances are very important.  Thus confirming what we already know but is hard to capture in the box score: a 2-run game winning homerun has much more impact than a grand slam when you are up by 10.

For me, WPA is the best way to evaluate a player's performance on a game-by-game basis and it is also interesting to look at over a whole season (The 2012 season leader in WPA was Mike Trout with 5.32 WPA).

LI:GOD

Leverage Index (LI) captures the change in win probability resulting from the game action.  Here is an example from Hardball Times:

If there is a game with one team leading by ten runs, the possible changes in win probability, whether the event is a home run or a double play, will be very close to negligible. That is, there won't be much swing in any direction.  But, in a late and close game, the change in win probability among the various events will have rather wild swings. With a runner on first, two outs, down by one, and in the bottom of the ninth, the game can hinge on one swing of the bat—a home run and an out will both end the game, but with vastly different outcomes for the teams involved. 

Blowouts are going to have a low average LI (aLI) because there is not much change in the probability in who will win the game.  Therefore, games with a high average LI are going to be the most interesting game of the night because they will have gone back and forth without one team really taking control of the game.

Fangraphs posts live WPA and LI information for every game.  So, instead of having me summarize every night in the MLB take a look for yourself.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 14, 2011 - Pence Helps Gigantes Beat the Cubbies; Rauch is Still Tall

4/14 MVP: Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants - 3-4 (1 HR), 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB, 0.47 WPA.  Clutch Moment: Homerun in the 9th that tied the score at 7-7.

4/14 GOD: Philadelphia Phillies (2) @ Miami Marlins (1) - Turning Point: Jon Rauch makes another appearance in the Game of the Day section here at Marcello Ball, and it is not for being an effective pitcher.  Instead of keeping the score tied to give a chance for the Marlins to take the lead in the bottom of the ninth, Rauch gave up a bomb to Laynce Nix in the top of the inning to give the Phils a 2-1 lead.  Unfortunately, being the tallest major league baseball player in the history of the game does not automatically mean you get people out.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 13, 2013 - Pujols is Clutch; Sox Win in 10

4/13 MVP: Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 2-3, 1 R, 2 RBI (GW), 0.73 WPA

4/13 GOD: Tampa Bay Rays (1) @ Boston Red Sox (2) (10 innings) - Turning Point: With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Jacoby Ellsbury singled off of Rays reliever Brandon Gomes.  Ellsbury then stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by Rays catcher Jose Lobaton.  Ellsbury stole the base easily, but the throw from Lobaton down to second was not that bad.  The burden of the error may belong to Yunel Escobar for his lackadaisical attempt to catch the off target throw.  Escobar lunged for the ball to but the ball careened off his glove and into centerfield, allowing Ellsbury to advance to third.  The Rays then brought the infield in and Shane Victorino grounded a ball up the middle, which Escobar dove for and caught, but for some reason threw to first.  Ellsbury would have been safe at home regardless of the throw, but throwing it to first base was totally useless.  Great game overall and the Sox did a nice job capitalizing on some mistakes in the 10th by the Rays.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 12, 2013 - Masterson = Masterful; Rauch = Tall

4/12 MVP: Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland Indians - 9.0 IP, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 0.676 WPA

4/12 GOD: Philadephia Phillies (3) @ Miami Marlins (1) (10 Innings) - Turning Point:  After striking out our boy Kevin Frandsen to start the inning, Jon Rauch gave up a line drive single to Ben Revere followed by a infield fly out by Jimmy Rollins.  Chase Utley then tripled to center, scoring Revere and giving the Phillies a 2-1 lead.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 11, 2013 - Juan Uribe, Softball Player

4/11 MVP: Juan Uribe, PH, Los Angeles Dodgers - 1-1 (1 HR), 1 RBI, 0.292 WPA.  Don't mess with Juan Uribe or he'll do this.  Once again, it's not how much you do, what matters is when you do it.

4/11 GOD: Texas Rangers (4) @ Seattle Mariners (3) - Turning Point:  Felix Hernandez ran into a bit of trouble in the 5th.  With the scored tied 2-2, Ian Kinsler lead the inning off with a single to left and reached second on a wild pitch.  Elvis Andrus then walked.  Hernandez settled down and got the next two outs without a hit.  Lance Berkman grounded into a fielder's choice and Adrian Beltre struck out.  David Murphy would not let Felix off the hook though.  He singled to center, scoring Kinsler and advancing Berkman to third.  Nelson Cruz finished off the scoring by doubling to left, scoring Berkman and lifting the Rangers to a 4-2 lead.

MLB MVP and Game O' the Day - April 10, 2013 - The New Manny

4/10 MVP: Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles - 1-5 (1 HR), 1 R, 3 RBI, 0.446 WPA.  Timing matters people, especially at Marcello Ball.  It is not how much you do, it is what you do and the impact of it.  Manny Machado had great timing last night.

4/10 GOD: Baltimore Orioles (8) @ Boston Red Sox (5) - Turning Point: Joel Hanrahan in, top 9, Red Sox up 5-3.  Chris Davis bomb, 5-4.  Matt Wieters strikeout, J.J. Hardy foul out.  2 outs, Hanrahan still in.  Ryan Flaherty singles to left, Nolan Reimold walks, Nate McLouth walks.  Hanrahan clan is not happy, but still alive.  Oops, nevermind.  Wild pitch, Alexi Casilla (pinch runner for Flaherty) scores.  Bad news for the Hanrahan clan, it is all tied up.  Marcello Ball MVP Manny Machado strides to the plate and deposits the Hanrahan offering into the bleachers.  8-5 B-more.  Oriole Magic!  Manny for MVP!

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 9, 2013 - Catchers are the Rage

4/9 MVP: John Jaso, PH --> C, Oakland Athletics - 1-2 (1 HR), 1 R, 3 RBI, 0.516 WPA. Once again, the quickest way to earning MVP here is a pitch hit bomb.

4/9 GOD: Pittsburgh Pirates (6) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (5) - Turning Point: Bucs down 3-4 top of the 4th. Brandon McCarthy on the mound for the D'Backs, Neil Walker at the plate, James McDonald on third base, and Starling Marte on second. Walker singles to center, scoring McDonald and Marte.  Buccos up 5-4.  D'Backs never get the lead back.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 8, 2013 - Opening Day for the Other Half of the League

4/8 MVP: Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox - 7 IP, 0 R, 8 K, 4 BB, 3 H, 0.471 WPA

4/8 GOD: Cincinnati Reds (13) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Yes, a game with a run differential of nine is the Game of the Day.  The Minnesota Twins loss to the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City actually had the same average leverage index; however, I chose the Reds vs. Cards game to illustrate that the final score doesn't tell the story.  With that.... Turning Point: Score tied 4-4 in the top of the ninth.  Mitchell Boggs enters for the Cards.  As he often does, Shin-Soo Choo walks to lead off the inning.  Chris Heisey then pops out to second base.  Choo advances to second on a wild pitch, which then leads to a intentional walk to Joey Votto.  Brandon Phillips did not like being disrespected and takes it out on Boggs.  Phillips doubles to right scoring Choo.  5-4 Reds.  The Cards 'pen imploded from there and the Reds tacked on eight (!) more runs in the 9th.  Lesson: Don't disrespect Brandon Phillips.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 7, 2013 - National Beer Day Edition

In case you missed it, yesterday was National Beer Day.  Naturally, the Brewers are involved in both the MVP and GOD for the day.  It is also the reason the post is so late.

4/7 MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers - 2-3, 2 RBI, 1 HBP, WPA 0.55

4/7 GOD: Arizona Diamondbacks (8) @ Milwaukee Brewers (7) - Turning Point: Tie score top of the 11th, John Axford in.  Cliff Pennington leads off with a double to left.  Ron Roenicke starts to question bringing a Canadian in to pitch for the Brewers on National Beer Day in the United States.  Eric Hinske hates Molsen and homers, giving the D'Backs a 8-6 lead.  The great American, and Eustis, Florida native, Jonathan Lucroy tried to bring the Brew Crew back in the bottom of the 11th with a RBI single that scored Norichika Aoki.  However, the damage was done.  John Axford's mistake on National Beer Day is something you don't do when you pitch for the Brew, and rightfully  he is now out of a job.  Be wary new Canadian closer Jim Henderson.  April 7, 2014 is looming.

Baseball Prospectus Tears Down Verducci Effect

Good stuff from Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus debunking the Verducci Effect, which trys to predict pitcher injuries based on increased innings pitched.

Here is my favorite paragraph:

"The Verducci Effect is a case of speculation mixed with a really poor understanding of the scientific method, and that is a dangerous combination. It gives the illusion of knowledge, and that's more dangerous than simply not knowing something. It's tempting to want to grab onto the Verducci explanation, especially when a young pitcher with so much promise suffers such a large setback, because a wrong explanation feels better than no explanation."

Baseball Prospectus | Baseball Therapy: Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 6, 2013 - Kevin Frandsen!

4/6 MVP: Kevin Frandsen, PH, Philadelphia Phillies - 1-1, 3 RBI.  Down 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth, the man, the myth, the legend, Kevin Frandsen came to the plate with the bases and two outs and doubled to center, scoring three and lifting the Phils to a 4-3 win over the Royals.  That, folks, is how you become the Marcello Ball Daily MVP.

4/6 GOD: Minnesota Twins (6) @ Baltimore Orioles (5) - Turning Point: The O's brought in closer Jim Johnson in the top of the ninth with score tied 5-5.  Jamey Carroll lead off the inning by grounding out 1-3.  Aaron Hicks then reached on an error by Chris Davis.  Joe Mauer struckout and Josh Willingham walked.  Next up, Justin Morneau with two outs and runners on first and second.  Morneau singled to center, scoring Hicks and lifting the Twinkies to a 6-5 lead.  Unfortunately for O's fans, Chris Davis did not hit in the ninth (he was in the hole when the last out was made) and did not have the opportunity to atone for his sin in the ninth.  Chris Davis giveth and Chris Davis taketh.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 5, 2013 - Gordon = Brett?

4/5 MVP - Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals - 3-6 (3B), 2 R, 3 RBI, 0.43 WPA

4/5 GOD - Minnesota Twins (5) @ Baltimore Orioles (9) - Turning Point: Chris Davis strikes again!  Grand slam off of Tyler Robertson in the bottom of the 8th to make the score 9-5 O's.  The O's started the inning off down 5-4, but Nolan Reimold and Nate McLouth led of the inning with singles off Casey Fein.  Buck Showalter then pulled a OOOOOOHHH DUSTY and had Manny Machado sac bunt, which lead to Reimold and McLouth advancing a base and an intentional walk to Nick Markakis.   Maybe that was Buck's plan all along, but it seems curious to take the bat out of Markakis' hands against Fien, a righty, to have him face a righty Adam Jones.  Pacman Jones II made Showalter look like a genius by singling to left, scoring Reimold and loading the bases for the man hitting everything.  Ron Gardenhire tried to slow the left-handed Davis down by bringing in a lefty.  Sorry Gardy.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 4, 2013 - Lee Outduels Davis

4/4 MVP: Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 8 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 8 K, 0 BB

Honorable Mention: Chris Davis (is Hitting Everything), Hitter, Baltimore Orioles - 2-3 (HR, 2B, HBP), 1 R, 4 RBI, 0 K

4/4 Game of the Day: Chicago Cubs (3) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (2) - Turning point: Nate Schierholtz and his well trimmed beard blasted a two run homer off of Jared Hughes with two outs in the top of the ninth to score himself and Anthony Rizzo (who reached on a walk and stole second).  Schierholtz's homerun gave the Cubbies a 3-0 lead, which was necessary since Carlos Marmol is their closer and he his not great at his job.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 3, 2013 - Neither Opening Day nor Night Edition

Bunting Rules!

4/3 MVP: Matt Joyce, Pinch Hitter --> LF , Tampa Bay Rays, 2-2 (1 HR, 1 bunt single!), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/3 GOD: St. Louis Cardinals (9) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (10) (16 innings) - Jason Kubel led off the bottom of the 16th with a walk against Fernando Salas (who was in his third inning of work).  Ian Kennedy (yes, the pitcher Ian Kennedy) sac bunted Kubel over to second (Bunting Rules!) Cliff Pennington finalized the game with a groundball single to right, scoring Kubel from second.  Good night, game over, drive home safely.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 2, 2013 - Opening Day #2 Edition

Not the dude who almost through a perfect game.

4/2 MVP: Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles - 3-5 (1 2B), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/2 GOD: Colorado Rockies (8) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4) - With the scored tied 4-4 in the top of the 7th, Mike Gonzalez, aka Michael Gonzalez, walked Dexter Fowler to lead of the inning.  Josh Rutledge then singled on a sacrifice bunt attempt.  Next up Carlos Gomez - single on grounder to first.  That's right folks, bases loaded no outs and the ball has not left the infield.  Burke Badenhop in to face Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Gonzalez out.  That didn't work.  Tulo hits a sac fly to center, scoring Fowler and allowing Rutledge to advance to third.  Michael Cuddyer then notches the third infield single of the inning on a grounder to third, scoring Rutledge and advancing Gomez to second.  6-4 Rocks.  Todd Helton caps the scoring with a line drive single to center scoring Gomez before Chris Nelson grounds in to a 1-6-3 double play to end the inning.  7-4 Rockies, bottom of the 7th.  Game over.  One leadoff walk, three infield singles (one on a sac bunt attempt), and one actual hit than left the infield.  Baseball is a crazy game.

Oooh Dusty

Bottom of the eighth inning and the Angels and Reds were tied 1-1.  Zero on Zero out .488 runs expected.  The Angels pitcher was Garret Richards 0.491 xFIP (League wide 4.01)9th batter Xavier Paul led off for the Reds. Paul was able to reach base thanks to an error by Howie Kendrick.0.857 Runs Expected- Runner on 1st no outs.

Aroldis Chapman was waiting in the bullpen an xFIP of 1.93 and 39 Saves last year.

Due up was Shin-Soo Choo 0.359 wOBA (0.315 League Wide wOBA last year), Brandon Phillips 0.325 wOBA , Joey Votto 0.438 wOBA, Chris Heisey 0.313wOBA, Jay Bruce 0.352 wOBA, and then Todd Frazier 0.354 wOBA.

Dusty Baker let Choo hit and Choo rewarded him with a single. Runners on 1st and 2^nd, no outs 1.442 Runs expected, Brandon Phillips up to bat.

·        Option 1 – Double steal. Runners move to 2^nd and 3^rd zero outs or Paul gets thrown out at 3^rd and Phillips is safe at 2^nd 1 out.

o   Increase the Run expectancy to 1.893 or decrease it to 1.072. Gain of + 0.45 or a loss of -0.37 assuming Paul is thrown out a 3^rd.

·        The steal is not worth the risk. Only gaining + 0.45 runs, while losing out on 0.37 runs is not worth taking. According to Fangraphs you would need a 78% success rate to make it worth stealing 3^rd. Not great with Iannetta catching and Paul running.

·        Option 2 – let Brandon Phillips hit

o   68% Records an out- Runners don’t advance 0.904 Runs expected

• 2.7% of a K, 20% line drive, 32% fly ball, 47% ground ball

·        19 GDP last year – Run Expectancy runner on 3^rd and 2 outs 0.363

o   32% Phillips walks or gets on base other than by hit. Bases loaded no outs 2.262 Run Expectancy

o   28% Phillips gest a base hit. Reds score a run and hand the ball to Chapman for the save

·        Option 2 has risks and rewards. The double play would basically kill the inning and there is a 47% chance of that he hits a ground ball, but the percentage that turn into a double play is not known. The reward is that Phillips gets a hit or gets on base is higher than the chance that he grounds into a double play.

·        Option 3 – Bunt. Runners move up to 2^nd and 3^rd 1 out.

o   The Run expectancy would go from 1.442 to 1.289. A net of -0.153 runs. But, the Reeds were only playing for 1 run with Chapman waiting in the bullpen.

·        Option 3- avoids the double play and brings Joe Votto to bat with 2 runners in scoring position. Yes the Reds lose a chance to score more runs, but they only need one with Chapman in the bullpen.

Dusty Baker decided to use Option 3 and bunt Brandon Phillips and avoid a double play, I presume, because that is the only way that makes sense. . What Baker failed to recognize is that the hitter behind Votto 0.438 wOBA was Chris Heisey, 0.313wOBA a below average hitter,  not Ryan Ludwick the Reds starting clean-up hitter who left the game with an injury. By bunting Phillips, Baker should have known that the Angels would walk Joey Votto and take their chance with Heisey after all bases loaded and 1out is 1.538 runs and runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 1 out is 1.29 runs. The Angels would take their chance with Heisey instead of letting Votto win the game. Dusty Baker took the bat out of his best hitter’s hands and let a below average player try to win the game. The end result does not matter, the process does.

The end result, in case you were wondering was that Garrett Richards struck Heisey out on 4 pitches. Jay Bruce was up and Mike Scoscia replaced (R ) Richards with (L) Sean Burnett to take advantage of a small platoon advantage. Bruce struck out on 6 pitches to end the inning. Joey Votto got on base the two other times he got up to bat. Baker remained consistent, he bunted Heisey with a runner on 1^st and no outs 0.857 Runs Expected to 0.6551 Runs expected, which allowed the Angels to walk Bruce and go righty on righty in the 11^th inning and face Todd Frazier. Frazier struck out, Hannahan got out and Votto was stranded.  The Angels won in 13 innings.  

Sesame Street Rocks

Awesome! (Thank you Roopa for the heads up)

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 1, 2013 - Opening Day Edition

Babe Ruth, who?

4/1 MVP: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB; 1-3 (1 HR), 1 R, 1 RBI.  Ruthian.

4/1 GOD: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (3) vs. Cincinnati Reds (1) (13 innings) - Turning Point: Chris Iannetta hit a line drive single to left off of J. Edgar Hoover J.J. Hoover in the top of the 13th that scored Josh Hamilton and Howie Kendrick (who both reached base by walk - Kendrick intentionally).

MLB MVP O' the Day - March 31, 2013 - Opening Night Edition

This post is dedicated to the 2013 Houston Astros, the first place 1-0 Houston Astros.

3/31 MVP:  Justin Maxwell, CF, Houston Astros - 2-3 (2 3B), 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB

3/31 GOD - Texas Rangers (2) vs. Houston Astros (8) - Turning Point:  Maxwell tripled to center with two outs in the fourth, scoring Brett Wallace and Carlos Pena (who both reached on groundball singles to centerfield) to give the Astros a 2-0 lead.