MLB MVP O' the Day - April 4, 2013 - Lee Outduels Davis

4/4 MVP: Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 8 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 8 K, 0 BB

Honorable Mention: Chris Davis (is Hitting Everything), Hitter, Baltimore Orioles - 2-3 (HR, 2B, HBP), 1 R, 4 RBI, 0 K

4/4 Game of the Day: Chicago Cubs (3) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (2) - Turning point: Nate Schierholtz and his well trimmed beard blasted a two run homer off of Jared Hughes with two outs in the top of the ninth to score himself and Anthony Rizzo (who reached on a walk and stole second).  Schierholtz's homerun gave the Cubbies a 3-0 lead, which was necessary since Carlos Marmol is their closer and he his not great at his job.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 3, 2013 - Neither Opening Day nor Night Edition

Bunting Rules!

4/3 MVP: Matt Joyce, Pinch Hitter --> LF , Tampa Bay Rays, 2-2 (1 HR, 1 bunt single!), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/3 GOD: St. Louis Cardinals (9) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (10) (16 innings) - Jason Kubel led off the bottom of the 16th with a walk against Fernando Salas (who was in his third inning of work).  Ian Kennedy (yes, the pitcher Ian Kennedy) sac bunted Kubel over to second (Bunting Rules!) Cliff Pennington finalized the game with a groundball single to right, scoring Kubel from second.  Good night, game over, drive home safely.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 2, 2013 - Opening Day #2 Edition

Not the dude who almost through a perfect game.

4/2 MVP: Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles - 3-5 (1 2B), 2 R, 2 RBI

4/2 GOD: Colorado Rockies (8) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4) - With the scored tied 4-4 in the top of the 7th, Mike Gonzalez, aka Michael Gonzalez, walked Dexter Fowler to lead of the inning.  Josh Rutledge then singled on a sacrifice bunt attempt.  Next up Carlos Gomez - single on grounder to first.  That's right folks, bases loaded no outs and the ball has not left the infield.  Burke Badenhop in to face Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Gonzalez out.  That didn't work.  Tulo hits a sac fly to center, scoring Fowler and allowing Rutledge to advance to third.  Michael Cuddyer then notches the third infield single of the inning on a grounder to third, scoring Rutledge and advancing Gomez to second.  6-4 Rocks.  Todd Helton caps the scoring with a line drive single to center scoring Gomez before Chris Nelson grounds in to a 1-6-3 double play to end the inning.  7-4 Rockies, bottom of the 7th.  Game over.  One leadoff walk, three infield singles (one on a sac bunt attempt), and one actual hit than left the infield.  Baseball is a crazy game.

Oooh Dusty

Bottom of the eighth inning and the Angels and Reds were tied 1-1.  Zero on Zero out .488 runs expected.  The Angels pitcher was Garret Richards 0.491 xFIP (League wide 4.01)9th batter Xavier Paul led off for the Reds. Paul was able to reach base thanks to an error by Howie Kendrick.0.857 Runs Expected- Runner on 1st no outs.

Aroldis Chapman was waiting in the bullpen an xFIP of 1.93 and 39 Saves last year.

Due up was Shin-Soo Choo 0.359 wOBA (0.315 League Wide wOBA last year), Brandon Phillips 0.325 wOBA , Joey Votto 0.438 wOBA, Chris Heisey 0.313wOBA, Jay Bruce 0.352 wOBA, and then Todd Frazier 0.354 wOBA.

Dusty Baker let Choo hit and Choo rewarded him with a single. Runners on 1st and 2^nd, no outs 1.442 Runs expected, Brandon Phillips up to bat.

·        Option 1 – Double steal. Runners move to 2^nd and 3^rd zero outs or Paul gets thrown out at 3^rd and Phillips is safe at 2^nd 1 out.

o   Increase the Run expectancy to 1.893 or decrease it to 1.072. Gain of + 0.45 or a loss of -0.37 assuming Paul is thrown out a 3^rd.

·        The steal is not worth the risk. Only gaining + 0.45 runs, while losing out on 0.37 runs is not worth taking. According to Fangraphs you would need a 78% success rate to make it worth stealing 3^rd. Not great with Iannetta catching and Paul running.

·        Option 2 – let Brandon Phillips hit

o   68% Records an out- Runners don’t advance 0.904 Runs expected

• 2.7% of a K, 20% line drive, 32% fly ball, 47% ground ball

·        19 GDP last year – Run Expectancy runner on 3^rd and 2 outs 0.363

o   32% Phillips walks or gets on base other than by hit. Bases loaded no outs 2.262 Run Expectancy

o   28% Phillips gest a base hit. Reds score a run and hand the ball to Chapman for the save

·        Option 2 has risks and rewards. The double play would basically kill the inning and there is a 47% chance of that he hits a ground ball, but the percentage that turn into a double play is not known. The reward is that Phillips gets a hit or gets on base is higher than the chance that he grounds into a double play.

·        Option 3 – Bunt. Runners move up to 2^nd and 3^rd 1 out.

o   The Run expectancy would go from 1.442 to 1.289. A net of -0.153 runs. But, the Reeds were only playing for 1 run with Chapman waiting in the bullpen.

·        Option 3- avoids the double play and brings Joe Votto to bat with 2 runners in scoring position. Yes the Reds lose a chance to score more runs, but they only need one with Chapman in the bullpen.

Dusty Baker decided to use Option 3 and bunt Brandon Phillips and avoid a double play, I presume, because that is the only way that makes sense. . What Baker failed to recognize is that the hitter behind Votto 0.438 wOBA was Chris Heisey, 0.313wOBA a below average hitter,  not Ryan Ludwick the Reds starting clean-up hitter who left the game with an injury. By bunting Phillips, Baker should have known that the Angels would walk Joey Votto and take their chance with Heisey after all bases loaded and 1out is 1.538 runs and runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 1 out is 1.29 runs. The Angels would take their chance with Heisey instead of letting Votto win the game. Dusty Baker took the bat out of his best hitter’s hands and let a below average player try to win the game. The end result does not matter, the process does.

The end result, in case you were wondering was that Garrett Richards struck Heisey out on 4 pitches. Jay Bruce was up and Mike Scoscia replaced (R ) Richards with (L) Sean Burnett to take advantage of a small platoon advantage. Bruce struck out on 6 pitches to end the inning. Joey Votto got on base the two other times he got up to bat. Baker remained consistent, he bunted Heisey with a runner on 1^st and no outs 0.857 Runs Expected to 0.6551 Runs expected, which allowed the Angels to walk Bruce and go righty on righty in the 11^th inning and face Todd Frazier. Frazier struck out, Hannahan got out and Votto was stranded.  The Angels won in 13 innings.  

Sesame Street Rocks

Awesome! (Thank you Roopa for the heads up)

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 1, 2013 - Opening Day Edition

Babe Ruth, who?

4/1 MVP: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB; 1-3 (1 HR), 1 R, 1 RBI.  Ruthian.

4/1 GOD: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (3) vs. Cincinnati Reds (1) (13 innings) - Turning Point: Chris Iannetta hit a line drive single to left off of J. Edgar Hoover J.J. Hoover in the top of the 13th that scored Josh Hamilton and Howie Kendrick (who both reached base by walk - Kendrick intentionally).

MLB MVP O' the Day - March 31, 2013 - Opening Night Edition

This post is dedicated to the 2013 Houston Astros, the first place 1-0 Houston Astros.

3/31 MVP:  Justin Maxwell, CF, Houston Astros - 2-3 (2 3B), 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB

3/31 GOD - Texas Rangers (2) vs. Houston Astros (8) - Turning Point:  Maxwell tripled to center with two outs in the fourth, scoring Brett Wallace and Carlos Pena (who both reached on groundball singles to centerfield) to give the Astros a 2-0 lead.