WPA:MVP as LI:GOD

A few people in the word (read: one) may have noticed that I did not post either an MVP or Game O' the Day for Monday, April 15.  While those posts were driving great traffic, my intention was to bring awareness to two statistics that tell the story of an MLB game, not necessarily recap each night of baseball.

WPA:MVP

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a stat that measures a players impact on the game by measuring how their offensive performance impacts their team's win expectancy.  Here is an example from Fangraphs: 

For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 – .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.


Basically, WPA tells you whose batting outcomes had the biggest impact on the game.  Therefore, the timing and context of the plate appearances are very important.  Thus confirming what we already know but is hard to capture in the box score: a 2-run game winning homerun has much more impact than a grand slam when you are up by 10.

For me, WPA is the best way to evaluate a player's performance on a game-by-game basis and it is also interesting to look at over a whole season (The 2012 season leader in WPA was Mike Trout with 5.32 WPA).

LI:GOD

Leverage Index (LI) captures the change in win probability resulting from the game action.  Here is an example from Hardball Times:

If there is a game with one team leading by ten runs, the possible changes in win probability, whether the event is a home run or a double play, will be very close to negligible. That is, there won't be much swing in any direction.  But, in a late and close game, the change in win probability among the various events will have rather wild swings. With a runner on first, two outs, down by one, and in the bottom of the ninth, the game can hinge on one swing of the bat—a home run and an out will both end the game, but with vastly different outcomes for the teams involved. 

Blowouts are going to have a low average LI (aLI) because there is not much change in the probability in who will win the game.  Therefore, games with a high average LI are going to be the most interesting game of the night because they will have gone back and forth without one team really taking control of the game.

Fangraphs posts live WPA and LI information for every game.  So, instead of having me summarize every night in the MLB take a look for yourself.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 8, 2013 - Opening Day for the Other Half of the League

4/8 MVP: Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox - 7 IP, 0 R, 8 K, 4 BB, 3 H, 0.471 WPA

4/8 GOD: Cincinnati Reds (13) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Yes, a game with a run differential of nine is the Game of the Day.  The Minnesota Twins loss to the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City actually had the same average leverage index; however, I chose the Reds vs. Cards game to illustrate that the final score doesn't tell the story.  With that.... Turning Point: Score tied 4-4 in the top of the ninth.  Mitchell Boggs enters for the Cards.  As he often does, Shin-Soo Choo walks to lead off the inning.  Chris Heisey then pops out to second base.  Choo advances to second on a wild pitch, which then leads to a intentional walk to Joey Votto.  Brandon Phillips did not like being disrespected and takes it out on Boggs.  Phillips doubles to right scoring Choo.  5-4 Reds.  The Cards 'pen imploded from there and the Reds tacked on eight (!) more runs in the 9th.  Lesson: Don't disrespect Brandon Phillips.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 7, 2013 - National Beer Day Edition

In case you missed it, yesterday was National Beer Day.  Naturally, the Brewers are involved in both the MVP and GOD for the day.  It is also the reason the post is so late.

4/7 MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers - 2-3, 2 RBI, 1 HBP, WPA 0.55

4/7 GOD: Arizona Diamondbacks (8) @ Milwaukee Brewers (7) - Turning Point: Tie score top of the 11th, John Axford in.  Cliff Pennington leads off with a double to left.  Ron Roenicke starts to question bringing a Canadian in to pitch for the Brewers on National Beer Day in the United States.  Eric Hinske hates Molsen and homers, giving the D'Backs a 8-6 lead.  The great American, and Eustis, Florida native, Jonathan Lucroy tried to bring the Brew Crew back in the bottom of the 11th with a RBI single that scored Norichika Aoki.  However, the damage was done.  John Axford's mistake on National Beer Day is something you don't do when you pitch for the Brew, and rightfully  he is now out of a job.  Be wary new Canadian closer Jim Henderson.  April 7, 2014 is looming.

MLB MVP O' the Day - April 6, 2013 - Kevin Frandsen!

4/6 MVP: Kevin Frandsen, PH, Philadelphia Phillies - 1-1, 3 RBI.  Down 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth, the man, the myth, the legend, Kevin Frandsen came to the plate with the bases and two outs and doubled to center, scoring three and lifting the Phils to a 4-3 win over the Royals.  That, folks, is how you become the Marcello Ball Daily MVP.

4/6 GOD: Minnesota Twins (6) @ Baltimore Orioles (5) - Turning Point: The O's brought in closer Jim Johnson in the top of the ninth with score tied 5-5.  Jamey Carroll lead off the inning by grounding out 1-3.  Aaron Hicks then reached on an error by Chris Davis.  Joe Mauer struckout and Josh Willingham walked.  Next up, Justin Morneau with two outs and runners on first and second.  Morneau singled to center, scoring Hicks and lifting the Twinkies to a 6-5 lead.  Unfortunately for O's fans, Chris Davis did not hit in the ninth (he was in the hole when the last out was made) and did not have the opportunity to atone for his sin in the ninth.  Chris Davis giveth and Chris Davis taketh.

First Four (aka We still need to win one more to get in)

North Carolina Agricultural and Technical, Liberty, Long Island-Brooklyn, and James Madison I feel for you. Middle Tennessee, St. Mary's, La Salle, and Boise State not so much.  A few years back the Minor League Basketball Tournament expanded beyond 64 teams in an effort to get more teams involved.  More is better (just ask AT&T); however, I think it sucks for the teams who won their conference tournaments and are now stuck in what is essentially a play-in game.  This tournament is the pinnacle for these teams and their players, unfortunately only half of them will actually get there.  I do not mind the play-in game for the teams who were on the so-called bubble, but I also think it is pretty useless.  These teams do not advance far enough to make a difference in the tournament.  Pick the 64 teams and move forward (I know the argument is made that job success is determined by tournament berths, but I hope the folks who make those decisions have a better idea of what is going on).

As outlined yesterday, I am ranking the watchability of the games in each round in an effort to focus my limited time in front of the TV.  The two parameters I am looking at are projected margin of victory  and average tempo of each game.  I am ranking the parameters for each game and then taking the average of the two rankings.  One is the best score possible.  The final result is a game score similar to NERD that was introduced by Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs, which he uses to rank baseball games every night.  If you have limited time, choose the game with the lowest score and watch that game.  The break down for the games on Tuesday and Wednesday is below.

And the winner is Long Island-Brooklyn vs. James Madison.  Long Island-Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace among the eight schools listed and gives up a ton of points.   My advice would be to watch this game if you have the chance.  I am personally also going to watch the Middle Tennessee vs. St. Mary's matchup as well because I have either of those teams upsetting Memphis in Round 2.

Happy watching.  I'll be back on Thursday to break down Round 2.

2012 World Series - Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants

I have always wondered how teams stack up from a SABRmetric viewpoint, and I think that graphics are the best way to see to understand the differences between the teams.  For this year's World Series, I wanted to take a look at how the Tigers and Giants compare.  Fangraphs does a great job compiling a ton of useful stats, and I isolated the stats I found most interesting.  The graphic above compares the Fangraphs WAR for each player on the World Series roster.  Upon first glance, you will notice the Giants have the best player in the series - Buster Posey.  Not to worry Tigers fans, Miguel Cabrera is awful good, and Verlander is by far the best pitcher in the series.  He was worth three more wins than the Giants top pitcher Matt Cain.

The graphic below shows the differences in distribution for batting (wOBA and wRC+), baserunning (BsR), fielding (Fld), and pitching (ERA and FIP).  There is not much of a difference between the two teams offensively or pitching-wise, but the Giants have advantages in baserunning and fielding.

The key to this series for me is Verlander.  If the Tigers win game one tonight, I think they will win the series.  The overall matchup is very close.  I think Verlander will overwhelm the Giants lineup and should win two games.  I'm betting on the Tigers pitching to limit the Giants offensively and neutralize any baserunning advantage.  I also feel that the Tigers pitching staff could strike out a ton of Giants hitters and thus hide their bad defense.  Enjoy game one.